Lena Lebedeva-Hooft (lenaswan) wrote,
Lena Lebedeva-Hooft

2535. Закладки из Викиликс про родную страну

Начинался пост как "заметки для себя". Но чем больше заметок подробных и разных - тем более странные впечатления. Всё-таки иногда это хоть и нехорошо, но полезно - читать чужую дипломатическую переписку и находить интересные темы и мнения конкретных людей.

Итак - фрагменты Викиликс о различных темах в России - про РАН и нанотехнологии, про Ковальчука и Сечина, про науку, климат-погоду и Арктику, мнения и цитаты от Венедиктова, Дворковича, Милова... Целый кабельный роман про AAR & BP & TNK-BP (мне неинтересный лично, но закладки сделаю). Много для меня нового про Газпром. В общем зачитаетесь, полагаю. Что-то ещё, что найду и сочту сегодня интересным (сейчас начала читать про РФ и Китай) - положу сюда же апдейтом.

Про Венесуэлу:
Russia's bilateral trade with Venezuela totals more than USD 700 million, while trade with Cuba totals about USD 280 million. Davydov told us that Russia's most important partner in Latin America was Brazil, which has the largest economy in the region. Russian-Brazilian bilateral trade totaled more than USD 5 billion in 2007.

Супер-интересно про Ковальчука и РАН и мн.др. научное и рядом:
Nevertheless, Koval'chuk has built strong ties between his own Institute of Crystallography and the Kurchatov Institute and their European counterparts. The ranks of Soviet emigre scientists throughout European labs have provided ready-made links between Koval'chuk's staff and European researchers, he noted. He has worked assiduously to provide quasi-internships in these labs, particularly in Germany, with an eye towards increased cooperation in the coming decades. Koval'chuk remarked that European scientists and officials clamor to collaborate with his institutes, particularly regarding nanotechnology research. "The U.S. is far ahead of us separately," he said, referring to Russia and Europe. "But when we combine, we can overtake you." In Koval'chuk's view, the Europeans "need" the Russians to keep up with American scientists. Confident in his optimistic assessment, Koval'chuk predicted great results from the Russian-European relationship...

Ооо, оттуда же круто про РАН и всяко под-РАНовые бизнесы...
Koval'chuk said he believes science reform is both appropriate and overdue and noted his own personal ties to the RAS, of which his father-in-law is a member. Singling out Nobel Laureate Zhores Alferov, Koval'chuk claimed that many of the older Academicians have entered into business relationships that improperly use Academy property. Alferov, for instance, has ensured that his son operates restaurants and dining facilities on Academy property in St. Petersburg. Reluctant to lose these questionable sources of income, RAS officials have hid behind the shield of science's purity and nobility in fighting off the MES, Koval'chuk contended. He Koval'chuk shared the comment a RAS Vice President made to him a few years ago. Academicians, the VP claimed, had figured out that by saying nothing to protest government reforms, they would get nothing. By raising a huge outcry, however, they not only protected much of what they have, but could squeeze out concessions from the government in exchange for acquiescing to a few points.

Тут для меня паззл - всё про нанотехнологии и т.п. - но ни слова о Чубайсе.
Ковальчук - Курчатовский - нано для атома. Гм. 2007 год.

On April 26, Putin dedicated the bulk of his science-related remarks to nanotechnology, dubbing nanotechnology the "locomotive" of international science. He equated nanotechnology's growing significance with that of nuclear science in the 1930s...

Вай-вай, а теперь целый длинный кабель про Сечина...
The overarching sense of Sechin's role in Russia among liberal observers is that of a puppet-master pulling the strings of power for his own personal gain and for that of favored colleagues and partners. ---------- told us recently (ref A) that he thinks Sechin is "dangerous," that he "lacks a moral center," and that he does not use his power for good.
...(S) Many see Sechin as a leader of a cadre of high-level GOR officials engaged in massive graft. Rumors of Sechin's ill-gotten wealth abound, even though all who discuss it are quick to admit that the rumors are purely speculative. ------------ told us he understands that Sechin's wealth, which he put at a surprisingly specific $14 billion, is second only to Putin's among high-ranking government officials. There is concern that Sechin's new official portfolio, overseeing the energy sector (septel), gives him still more opportunity to accumulate wealth. Former Deputy Energy Minister Vladimir Milov highlighted personal corruption in discussing Sechin with us, noting something that many others with whom we spoke also alluded to -- that Sechin's new direct authority over the lucrative energy sector would give him "better access to cash flow."
отметила выше - главного цитируемого затёрли, а ещё одна фамилия - светится.

Охренеть просто - а вот и ещё беседа и гм, мнение о той же персоне - Венедиктов о Сечине:
C) Against this widespread image, there are some who see Sechin as a more complex character, whose interests lead him to take a more "liberal" or "integrationist" approach. Editor-in-chief of Ekho Moskvy radio Aleksey Venediktov, after a one-on-one lunch with the Deputy Premier, told us that Sechin sounded like former Yukos owner Mikhail Khodorkovskiy, in the sense that Sechin understood the need for Western expertise and capital to develop Russia's energy resources. Evoking another controversial reform figure, Venediktov said Sechin also resembled former RAO UES head Anatoliy Chubays ) in that "he gets things done."
Сравнение Сечина с Чубайсом по-моему мозгосносительное.
А с Ходорковским - и вообще за гранью.
Охх pdf-ну я этот именно многоговорящий кабель.

Шедеврально и дальше там же. Цитируют мнение Милова о Медведеве в связи с Сечиным.
(C) Milov is also one of many analysts who saw Sechin's transfer to Deputy Premier as a demotion, indicating the weakened role of the siloviki in favor of more "reform-minded" leaders such as President Medvedev, with whom Sechin reportedly had an uneasy relationship. Milov told us that Sechin had been "institutionally weakened" in his new role because "he now needs bureaucratic buy-in, but he doesn't have strong bureaucratic skills."

сентябрь 2008 года... И название неплохое - A Dark Force...

совсем о другом - о технологическом сотрудничестве для отслеживания погоды в Арктике.
In particular, current measurements for black carbon soot and releases of methane and carbon dioxide from northern soils are not adequate. The United States and Russia can improve ground- and satellite-based sensors and networks and strengthen international data sharing. Nikolay Smirnov, Deputy Head of North America Department, agreed that it is very important to do more than monitor weather in the Arctic since transportation is already starting.
...Marine Scientific Research Authorizations: Recognizing that the Arctic is a sensitive zone militarily for Russia, Holdren expressed U.S. concern over Russian delays and failures in granting authorizations for U.S. conduct of marine scientific research in Russia's Exclusive Economic Zone. He expressed hope that the Russian interagency process for coordinating clearances could be streamlined...

и ещё там же про Росгидромет и Арктику:
Roshydromet just estimated that the Russian Federation is losing 12 square kilometers of land mass a year -- not because of raising sea levels, but because warming soils are actually sinking along the Arctic coast. Tundra is also shrinking. (Note: On November 6, Prime Minister Putin very unexpectedly accepted Bedritskiy's previous offer to resign as Roshydromet head because Bedritsky had reached retirement age. End note.)

про РФ - США и Японию - и мирный атом устами Велехова:
After the tour, Velikhov proposed that Russia, the United States, and Japan mass produce 300-500 megawatt fast breeder reactors... Там больше.
Я верно ли помню, что это тот же академик, который заливал Чернобыльский реактор свинцом?

Ух ты, Дворкович обещает визовые послабления учителям английского :-)) В смысле тем у кого он родной :-)
Dvorkovich said improvements in Russian visas would take place within a few months, starting with priority areas where Russia needs human capital, such as English teachers.

и продолжает завлекать бизнесы в Россию - но те продолжают упираться из-за нехорошего правового климата...
Reiterating Medvedev's desire to speed up innovation, Dvorkovich said that Russia cannot succeed only with its own resources and called for large U.S. companies to come and establish R&D centers in Russia, along the lines of the Boeing R&D center. He claimed that European companies were more engaged. When Holdren noted that some U.S. businesses see Russia's legal environment as an obstacle, Dvorkovich stated that successful examples of U.S. R&D investment, like Boeing, will help counter this perception. Dvorkovich stressed Medvedev's commitment to anti-corruption, citing the prosecution of "hundreds of cases."

Остановлюсь пока - лучше копать огород и переваривать прочитанное - под новости на неродном языке.
Но это ещё малая часть нового вывешенного.

Апдейт 1.
Продолжим. Про долгую историю конфликта вокруг TNK-BP - целый кабельный роман. Заложу ссылки по датам: 2008-03-28, 2008-05-30, 2008-06-16, 2008-06-20, 2008-07-09, 2008-07-24, 2008-07-25, 2008-08-06, 2008-08-18, 2008-09-05, 2008-11-13, 2008-11-24...
Мдааа, инвестиционный климат офигительный конечно... McCormick said GOR sources have told him that Khan's control over the company may be short-lived. According to these sources, the GOR plans to split TNK-BP into separate oil and gas companies that would then be sold, respectively, to Rosneft and Gazprom, with BP reduced to a minority shareholder in both companies... это отсюда.

и ещё рассмешил фрагмент в 2009-м тоже о TNK-BP и поостывшем конфликте: According to Summers, TNK-BP’s financial performance has helped to smooth relations between BP and the Russian shareholders (AAR) -- “They don’t want to kill the only goose in their portfolio that is laying golden eggs.”... здесь.

Ладно, продолжим в других темах.
Апрель 2009 года. про расклад сил - к визиту директора ФБР в Россию для встреч с Бортниковым, Фрадковым и Нургалиевым: As the economic downturn has highlighted the weaknesses of Putin's "miracle" that harnessed unprecedented high natural resource prices to improve the average Russian's quality of life over the past 8 years, a critical debate is taking place over whether to maintain the status quo or embrace reform and liberalization as the only path to further development. Your interlocutors are the leading defenders of the status quo and advocate a "tightening of the screws" against domestic opposition and their alleged external supporters...

...Fradkov, who allegedly worked for Soviet intelligence in the 1970s in brokering arms sales to India, was given a mandate at the time of his appointment to FSB chief to "protect the interests of Russian companies abroad." As during his tenure as Prime Minister, Fradkov works closely with the powerful state corporations and has ties to the influential First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin. Bortnikov spent his entire career in the FSB working on economic issues; before his appointment as Director, he headed the FSB Economic Security Service. During his tenure there, Bortnikov worked behind the scenes in the government's campaign against the oligarchs. Many here consider Bortnikov as the protege of his predecessor, Nikolay Patrushev, now the Secretary of the Security Council, and indirectly allied with Sechin...

А что, верно и далее цитируется: ...Despite the changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's security services hew closer ideologically to the model of the Imperial Okhrana (secret police) than the law-enforcement services of our Western allies. Law enforcement of the type for which the FBI has responsibility in the U.S. -- criminal prosecution, organized crime, and counter-terrorism -- is only part of the portfolio that the FSB and MVD share (in conjunction with Prosecutor's office), and often political factors temper the services' enthusiasm for pursuing prominent targets. Independent analysis suggests that some members of the security services are allied with various organized crime structures or turn a blind eye to the activities of known criminals. Only when political winds change, does the law enforcement machine move after prominent criminals...

...MVD forces have been deployed to harass and intimidate political opposition protests while "investigations" against Western-supported NGOs for trumped up charges (like using pirated software) have hindered the work that those organizations seek to accomplish...

И вот образец дипломатии словесно ИМХО...The road ahead will be difficult, but the timing of the journey -- with the Kremlin backing a more cooperative relationship -- is perhaps the most promising in several years...

Из TNK-BP-шных досье - но весьма интересно про состояние дел в нефтегазовой отрасли в целом - на сентябрь 2009 года.

Summers: If you’re a European buyer, the last molecule of gas you will want is from Gazprom. Отменная фраза!

...The inefficiencies in the system “are so huge,” according to Summers, that it would take a very long time to modernize the Russian oil and gas sector. For example, Summers pointed out that a well that would take 10 days to drill in Canada would take 20 days to drill in Russia. He said moving a drilling rig from one site to another, a process that might take 7 or 8 hours in Canada, takes 28 DAYS in Russia -- “multiply that by hundreds or thousands and you can start to imagine the costs to the economy.”

...However, he lamented, Russia continues to be seen as too risky by many service companies, which have concerns about intellectual property protection of licensed products and are scared off by the negative headlines about Russia. He explained that many of these companies are not large enough to absorb the potential losses from a major investment gone bad. Furthermore, he added there were simply better opportunities for these companies elsewhere over the past few years during the oil price boom...

Отменное финальное резюме: Summers appears to be leaving behind a company in good shape, but in an industry that badly needs the modernizing influence of western companies and executives. Unfortunately, as Summers pointed out, the GOR, despite welcome words by some of its leaders, has not taken actions to attract more of this influence...

полностью здесь.

Интереснейшее про Газпром, хотя сентября 2008 года: the company's top three priorities are to: fulfill domestic gas demand, fulfill "social obligations," and to maximize control over domestic and international oil and gas resources.....

.. Надо же, про провал вдвое в 2008-м я как-то грубо пропустила - ...Gazprom's shareholder value. The company was valued at more than $380 billion at its peak a few months ago and is now worth less than $150 billion -- a stunning loss of over $200 billion of the company's market capitalization...

И вот ещё круто конечно: Zolotov added, however, that Gazprom draws a redline against sharing access, through monetary compensation or physical connection, to export markets. He explained that Gazprom's export monopoly is necessary to protect the high prices charged to European consumers. He said TPA could never apply to exports "because we can't let Russian gas compete against Russian gas; that would cause prices in Europe to drop." .

И совершенно справедливый финальный комент что есть Газпром: a rent-seeking monopolist, looking to control resources wherever possible, and with a relatively simplistic sense of responsibility to shareholders other than the state

полностью здесь.

Февраль 2009-го, тоже про Газпром. Цитата из резюме однако: The markets have rightly punished the company, driving down its stock price by over 70% from its peak, giving the company little hope of achieving its long-sought goal of becoming the "most valuable company in the world."  Всё здесь.

Перерыв до апдейта 2.

ОК, продолжаю UPD2, хотя читаю всё то же. Оказывается Газпрому весьма и весьма выгоден слабый рубль..
...The one bright spot for Gazprom's finances is the weakening ruble. With most of its revenues in dollars or euros and most of its operating expenses in rubles, the company stands to benefit substantially from a weak ruble. In its presentation, Gazprom estimated that each 1% decline in the value of the ruble would result in about $500 million of benefit to the company...

И про отношение мировых рынков к Газпрому и не только: As with Russian companies as a whole, the markets have been tough on Gazprom in the face of its looming financial problems and its inability or unwillingness to deal with them.

Байерли конечно исключительно комментит: As of mid-year 2008, Gazprom was still confidently predicting that it would become the "most valuable company in the world" and the first company to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion. The failure of Gazprom's out-sized ambitions is bad news for the GOR. Not long ago, a company representative told us Gazprom alone is responsible for contributing 40% of the GOR budget. That could partly explain recent upward revisions by the GOR of its expected 2009 and 2010 budget deficits. Like the Russian economy as a whole, the company's problems are deeper than the immediate financial difficulties it faces. Gazprom is perhaps the most prominent example of the flawed economic model in Russia -- giant, inefficient, politically directed companies that destroy wealth and stifle dynamism.
Это тут .

Ой-ёлки, роман про Газпром в двух частях. Октября 2009 года. На англиийском конечно - часть 1 и часть 2.
По-русски роман назывался бы как "избушко повернулось к Газпрому задом..." Интересны последствия.


Первую часть зацепила в следующем посте, а здесь интереснее часть вторая. Gazprom not only faces a demand problem, but also competition from an increasingly globalized gas market -- "for the next 5 to 10 years, gas will clearly be a buyers market...

В следующей тоже уже устаревшей цитате интереснее, что у нас теперь вдруг войнушка с японцами: "Gazprom executives have often expressed the expectation that the company would become a global gas supplier, perhaps through newly expanded LNG capacity. However, their preferred future export destination, the U.S., is looking more and more saturated every day with ever larger estimates for domestic production. In a recent meeting with Embassy officials in Sakhalin, Shell oil representatives stated that no LNG had been shipped from the Sakhalin II facility to the U.S. due to soft prices in that market. Much of this LNG has been shipped to Japan instead." - то бишь торговле не гуд.

И да, Европа тоже оперяется: Despite some pain in certain Central and Eastern European countries, Ovchinnikov explained, the 2009 gas cutoff showed that Europe could get by without Russian gas. This should bolster EU determination to minimize its dependence on Russian gas, and to explore new options to diversify energy supplies.

Диагноз такой летальный диагноз ИМХО: A Gazprom that behaved more like a competitive global company would probably find a new path to growth more quickly. But Gazprom is not a competitive global company, despite sitting on the world's largest gas reserves. Gazprom is a legacy of the old Soviet Ministry of Gas and it still operates much the same way.

Забавное для меня словосочетание - a bureaucratic behemoth. Ага, это про газпрём.

И как всегда отменное резюме - тут много: Gazprom is what one would expect of a state-owned monopoly sitting atop huge wealth -- inefficient, politically driven, and corrupt...

Пара интересных цитат про Китай: The world's number two energy consumer, China identifies secure energy supplies for its rapidly growing economy as a "core interest." здесь, плюс забавнейший линк 2007 года про российско-китайское: The Chinese Embassy expressed frustration at the lack of follow-through on the seemingly impressive number of bilateral agreements already in place, blaming Russia's inherent suspicion of Chinese economic power, as well as increasing Chinese self-sufficiency in areas such as weaponry... .

Старое давнее - как ломали ЮКОС за деньги Китая: CNPC helped finance Rosneft's purchase of former Yukos producing arm, Yugansneftegaz, and has a small joint venture with Rosneft as well... (Note: Perhaps inadvertently confirming widely reported rumors that China played a role in Rosneft's acquisition of Yukos' Yuganskneftegaz, First Secretary Li complained that state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has yet to see the Russian side keep up its part of the bargain from CNPC's $6.1 billion provision of financing to Rosneft. End Note.) . тут.  

Перерыв ещё раз.
Tags: @Ведомости, Арктика * Arctic, Мысли вслух вообще * Just thinking, Политика серьёзно * Politics Serious, Россия * Russia, Экономика ресурсов * Economics of Resour
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